Questions from the Press, Tuesday, June 20, 2023.

Margaux Kelly, 2022.

I received questions from Dan Johnson of the Sonoma Index-Tribune about the Sonoma Valley Unified LCAP, which is our Local Control and Accountability Plan. The answers, in writing, are below. The photo is of my daughter Margaux, at the start of school this past year, as a contrast to the previous photo. It's amazing how fast they grow up. 

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1. The board approved the LCAP, 5-0, correct?

 

Yes, that is my recollection.

 

2. Why is the LCAP report important?

 

The Local Control and Accountability Plan (LCAP) requirement was created during Jerry Brown's governorship as a part of a reform of school finances in 2013–14. Required by law to be approved prior to the school district's budget, and perhaps originally intended as a planning document, the LCAP now resembles more of a compliance instrument. However, with its objective metrics over a three-year window, the LCAP contains valuable information regarding the performance of a district that is often hard to find in one place elsewhere. It is a significant piece of work for our staff, and I commend the SVUSD employees who worked hard to ensure fidelity to the facts in this year's LCAP.

 

3. Trustees expressed concerns about the LCAP, though. What do you feel were the main concerns expressed?

 

I hesitate to speak regarding the concerns of other trustees. I feel I need to let their comments speak for themselves.

 

4. What are your main concerns with the LCAP?

 

The demographic characteristics of the District drew my attention to begin. The 2021 American Community Survey conducted by the US Census Bureau showed 68% of SVUSD's 38,732 residents identify as White, while 25% identify as Hispanic/Latinx, roughly a 3:1 ratio. However, the demographics within our schools presents a contrasting picture. SVUSD schools have 1,156 White students and 2,305 Hispanic/Latinx students, nearly a 1:2 ratio in the opposite direction.  This translates to roughly 22 White residents for every White student, and about 3 Hispanic/Latinx residents for each Hispanic/Latinx student. The significant difference between the composition of our electorate and our student body is an important point to keep in mind to understand SVUSD.

 

Moving on to measures of performance, our LCAP reveals several key issues that need immediate attention. First, we are faced with significant staffing shortages. The district is managing with only 1.4 full-time equivalent English Learner Support Teachers. This shortfall, in addition to the statewide teacher shortage, particularly impacts our special education department, requiring us to resort to virtual instruction in some cases.

 

Second, we are witnessing an alarming trend in chronic absenteeism. During the 2021-22 academic year, there has been a notable increase in this concern, especially among our English Learner and Low Income students. In fact, our overall attendance rate has slipped from 94% in 2020-21 to 88% in 2021-22. This trend is evident in our target schools too, with Dunbar experiencing the most significant drop in attendance. 

 

Third, our student performance in key areas is declining. In the 2021-22 academic year, only 21% of 11th-grade students met or exceeded the math standards, down from 24% in the previous year. We've also noted a drop in our English Learner reclassification rates, from 15% to 12% over the same period.

 

Fourth, our Local Control Accountability Plan (LCAP) analysis has revealed a significant discrepancy between our local data and state testing data. This gap is particularly pronounced for our English Learner and Socioeconomically Disadvantaged students in state tests. Furthermore, a decrease in the percentage of students in grades 3-8 and 11 meeting or exceeding standards in English Language Arts and Math, as per the 2021 CAASPP data, compounds this concern.

 

Fifth, we are grappling with legal compliance issues in our special education department, specifically concerning Individualized Education Programs (IEPs) for our English Learner special education students. Coupled with this, our students with disabilities are not meeting the proficiency goals in STAR Reading and Math.

 

Finally, our attempts at professional development have encountered challenges. For instance, our Orton-Gillingham training program had no participants in Fall 2022, indicating a need to reassess our approach and make professional development more accessible and engaging for our staff.

 

The array of issues identified above illuminates the necessity for a comprehensive, targeted approach to surmount these challenges while keeping in mind the welfare of our diligent staff and students. They bear the real brunt of these issues, and their resilience in the face of such obstacles inspires our persistent efforts to enhance SVUSD's performance. However, the enduring inaccuracies in our budget have unfortunately sown seeds of mistrust in the data reported about educational outcomes. Critics have a valid point in their concerns that if our budget regularly underestimates revenues, could it be possible that our student performance metrics are similarly discounting student performance? This lack of trust only magnifies the complexities of the educational reform work we strive to undertake for our Valley. I think the Board understands the emotional toll this can take on our community, students, and staff, making our mission to restore trust even more urgent. This is especially poignant given a historical pattern of misinformation and distrust which has not only increased polarization but has also undercut accountability and degraded the quality of our public discourse. The impact of this on our students and staff is not lost, and I think reinforces our Board's commitment to transparency and accuracy.

 

5. Melanie Blake said that it is important to view the LCAP as one part of the district’s strategic plan. Do you agree? What are the other important components of the plan?

 

I leave Melanie Blake's public comments to her, which I think speak for themselves.

 

6. When was the district’s last strategic plan created? What is its purpose and how often are they created?

 

My recollection is that the last two strategic plans were created in 2005 and 2013, and that SVUSD began the creation of a new strategic plan in 2018. The board received updates on the strategic planning process based on listening circles and other information solicited in February of 2019. On April 27, 2019, the Board held a study session on this subject. In the fall of 2019, the process was continuing, when it became clear at the resignation of Nicole Abate Ducarroz, that the trustee areas were out of compliance with California law, and that redistricting had not occurred after the 2010 census. At that time, Sonoma Valley Unified engaged Davis Demographics to complete a demographic study to allow redistricting, which did, in fact, occur in 2020. My recollection is that the board thought an accurate demographic study was also a prerequisite to completing a new strategic plan. 

 

The onset of the pandemic in February and March of 2020 interfered with the continuation of the strategic planning process, as District resources were shifted to handling the transition to distance learning. The District investigated restarting the process in the fall of 2022. There was disagreement between the then-sitting trustees about the nature and scope of that work. Further, as no facilities master plan had yet been completed, and because SVUSD was again considering realignment in the context of that facilities master plan, the District chose to focus on its facilities plan. 

 

That facilities master planning process in many respects came to reflect a hard-nosed recognition that waste on so many underutilized sites required attention prior to implementing new programs across a portfolio of campuses constructed for a different student population, residing in different places, in different times. The facilities master plan should be complete this fall and that, along with our demographic data, will likely supply the necessary supporting materials for SVUSD to again conduct listening circles and surveys regarding the strategic plan. 

 

The strategic plan can be thought of as a process of documenting and establishing the direction of our District by assessing where we are, and envisioning where we want to be. I have compared the process at times to painting the Golden Gate Bridge, a continuing task that is never completed, but which is essential to serving our community. Ten years is a bit long between plans, but given the serious problems with redistricting and facilities, and the changing demographics of the District, coupled with the impact of the pandemic, I think the time frame since the last strategic plan is understandable. 

 

7. Do you think it is time to create a new strategic plan? Why or why not?

 

With the completion of the facilities master plan in the fall, yes, I believe we are in a position to undertake this work. 

 

8. What do you feel were the most encouraging and most disappointing findings in the LCAP report?

 

The LCAP data paints a sobering picture, a reflection of the challenges our school community is navigating. There are both inspiring and disheartening elements. On a positive note, it is heartening to acknowledge the dedication and professional integrity of our staff in ensuring the accuracy of the information. They have not shied away from presenting unvarnished facts, a testament to their commitment to our students' education and well-being.

 

However, it is deeply concerning that enduring distrust over budget misinformation and consequent polarization in our community threatens to overshadow these efforts. Such a climate does not just cast doubt on the credibility of our reports, but it also hampers accountability and efforts to create a higher-performing institution. It's distressing to consider that this mistrust could adversely affect the morale of our hardworking staff and the educational experiences of our students.

 

It's vital that we work to resolve the trust issues stemming from underestimated revenues. We need to create a shared understanding that our commitment to transparency and accuracy extends equally to our financial and student performance metrics. By doing so, we can foster a more supportive and trusting environment for all members of our community, especially our students, who deserve nothing less than our best efforts.

 

9. Would you like to say anything else?

No, thank-you.  

Questions from the Press, Friday, June 16, 2023.

Margaux Kelly and John Kelly.

2023, at Kindergarten Flyaway (Graduation).

As usual, I have answered questions I received from the Sonoma Index-Tribune about this week's Sonoma Valley Unified budget, and post the same here for the public. 

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1. The board approved the budget by a 3-2 vote, with you and Celeste Winders dissenting. Why did you vote against it?

My decision was based on a thorough analysis of the district's historical budget data. It is rooted in long-standing discrepancies that I believe we need to address.

Since 2010, a persistent issue has been the consistent underestimation of actual revenues versus our budgeted predictions, exceeding the generally accepted 5% margin of error, averaging 10.5% error up until the pandemic, and now approaching nearly 20% for several years since then. Our staff have presented a variety of arguments ranging from changes in revenue streams to federal funding reductions and projected decreases in future revenue to explain this discrepancy. However, after closely examining these arguments, I found that they do not address the core issue at hand.

Specifically, arguments relating to stable federal and state program revenues, projected revenue decrease for 2023-24, enrollment decline, and federal funding reductions do not clarify the root cause of the repeated underestimation. In fact, logically, some of these factors should lead to overestimations, which is not the case. While the shift in revenue streams following the Local Control Funding Formula implementation and the increase in property tax revenue could potentially explain underestimations for a year or two, these points also do not adequately explain the persistent underestimation of revenues for more than a decade.

These discrepancies not only undermine the trust and reliability in our budgeting practices, but also have tangible impacts on our district. They exacerbate our staffing challenges, particularly in supporting English Learner students and the special education department, as the distrust of our finances deters good employees from joining our District. Furthermore, they create misleading narratives of deficit spending through documents like the Budget Adoption Letter and First and Second Interim Letters from the Sonoma County Office of Education, further eroding staff and community trust.

The continuous underestimations underscore the urgent need for a balanced budget that accurately reflects our district's revenue predictions. This is why I voted against the budget: to draw attention to these issues and to insist that we address them. I believe we need to adjust our budgeting practices to better reflect the true financial status of the district.

By doing so, we can better align our resources, improve our staff recruitment efforts, enhance our professional development programs, and restore the trust of our staff and community. In short, we need to ensure the accuracy of our budget to support the effective fiscal planning of Sonoma Valley Unified.

2. You made a strong appeal for the board to approve only balanced budgets. Why is that important?

The significance of a balanced budget lies in its fundamental role in effective fiscal planning and overall district operations. A balanced budget properly represents our revenue and expenditure projections. It provides a reliable foundation from which we can make strategic decisions, allocate resources efficiently, and plan for future development. This helps in maintaining a healthy fiscal environment, which is essential for the smooth operation of our educational services.

When the budget is not balanced, or in our case, when revenues are consistently underestimated, it creates a skewed picture of our financial situation. This can lead to misconceptions about our district's fiscal health, such as misleading narratives of deficit spending. These misconceptions can impact our district's operations, decisions, and overall reputation. This inaccuracy can also result in eroding the trust of our staff, parents, and the broader community, as they may not have confidence in our financial planning capabilities. Such misinformation undermines accountability and only serves to polarize opinions, rather than allowing the creation of mutual understanding.

Furthermore, persistent budget underestimations have had tangible impacts on our district. They have exacerbated staffing challenges, particularly for supporting English Learner students and the special education department. These errors have also hampered our recruitment efforts due to perceived instability, further straining our resources.

By insisting on a balanced budget, we aim to rectify these issues. A budget that accurately mirrors our financial reality can eliminate false narratives of deficit spending, restore trust within our community, and better inform our strategic planning. Moreover, it can provide a more stable foundation for staff recruitment and resource allocation, thereby improving the overall quality of our educational services.

In short, approving only balanced budgets is an essential step towards transparent and effective fiscal planning, thereby fostering a stronger and more trustworthy Sonoma Valley Unified.

3. Both you and Winders referred to VMTA’s complaints during negotiations last year that the district’s projected revenues were inaccurately low. Do you think that the projections, which indeed turned out to be low, influenced the negotiations?

The unreliability of the District's financial documents was a frequent topic during our negotiations with VMTA, and at the same time with SCOE. On October 31, 2022, following the start of Adrian Palazuelos extended absence, the District acknowledged an additional $7 million in revenue and promptly resolved its contract with the teachers' union. If the June budget had accurately projected our revenue trends, we could have avoided that protracted dispute leading to an impasse and factfinding.

Furthermore, due to the imbalanced budget, the District provided inaccurate information to SCOE. This led to a series of automatically generated letters from SCOE to SVUSD suggesting the District might receive a "qualified" or "negative" status. That is simply ridiculous for a District like Sonoma Valley that has robust revenue growth and reserves that have been growing at an average pace of over a million dollars a year for the past five years. These SCOE letters, which created an impression of financial mismanagement amongst our constituents, were based entirely on SVUSD's estimates, not an independent analysis by SCOE.

Throughout the process, I consistently raised concerns about the inaccuracies in our financial documents. Indeed, I regularly pointed out that at least four million, and probably seven million dollars were missing from our financial statements. Notwithstanding that accurate criticism, we still received a proposed budget this year that, again, given the assumptions with which it was built, requires deficit spending.

4. Do you feel that the board and school district administration make decisions based on a budget with revenues projected to be significantly lower than they turn out to be? If so, can you cite some examples of important decisions in which this is the case and how they negatively affected the district?

Our labor relations have been strained for over a decade due to this consistent under-projection of our revenues. The proposals extended to our teachers and staff often draw understandable disbelief from our union partners, who, at this point, are fully cognizant of the recurring underestimation of revenues. The credibility of our District Office, our Board, and the institution itself is justifiably questioned due to budgets that serve more to misinform than enlighten.

The repercussions of such consistent misinformation have led to divisiveness within the educational community, diminished accountability, and eroded trust in our schools. Consequently, talented teachers, staff, and administrators, frustrated with the routinely dysfunctional financial statements that glaringly do not reflect reality, leave the District. Furthermore, once the trustworthiness of the documents detailing revenues is undermined, the essential trust for implementing educational reform suffers an immediate blow, hampering the enhancement of outcomes for our students.

5. As I understand him, Josh Braff feels that even though after the budget is approved, the district receives additional funding during the course of the year, he can’t put that into the budget because he doesn’t know how much the money will be and what category it will fall under. Is that your understanding of his position? If so, what is your response to his position?

The issues we are facing significantly predate Mr. Braff's tenure with the District. It's unjust to lay the blame on an individual who appropriately recognized additional revenue after changes within the Superintendent's office last year. In fact, the comprehensive analysis I carried out over the past two weeks, which I shared with Mr. Braff, provides data that he acknowledged could be used to construct a budget addressing these concerns in the future.

Though it is not customary for a trustee to dedicate such a significant amount of time to perform this type of work, my decade-long experience with these issues meant I knew where to go to find the necessary data. I cannot see how this persistent underestimation, which has happened for more than a decade and has veered toward double or even triple the acceptable level of error in recent years, can continue. I do not foresee future budgets being presented to the board that rely on inaccurate assumptions.

As a trustee, I plan to propose changes to our board bylaws as a trustee agenda item. This would require deficit spending to be approved by a four-fifths vote in the future and require that the permitted level of expenditure align with accurate revenue projections. Consequently, this would necessitate a balanced budget, unless a supermajority is willing to continue to deficit spend

6. Do you feel that the trustees will do anything to resolve this situation in the future?

The finance office now has the historical data clearly presented to illustrate the issue. After comprehensive discussions among the trustees, who largely recognized the problem, it would be surprising to see a readiness to approve further deficit spending in the future. All the trustees understand that our constituents expect us to approve a balanced budget, particularly given our significant revenue growth and steadily increasing reserves. I can't envision them being willing to vote for such a budget again.

As for my part, I plan to propose changes to our board bylaws as a trustee agenda item. This would require deficit spending to be approved by a four-fifths vote in the future and require that the permitted level of expenditure align with accurate revenue projections. Consequently, this would necessitate a balanced budget, unless a supermajority is willing to continue to deficit spend.

7. What do you feel should be done?

For now, the issue is settled; the unbalanced budget with deficit spending has been approved. 

Our Board of Trustees plays a critical role in our District, serving as the center of financial decision-making. The Board is structured to foster communication between the government and its citizens, conveying public opinions, desires, and complaints to our staff, and justifying the actions taken and decisions made by the same to the public. Our voters have clearly communicated to us as a board, that they expect responsible financial management and balanced budgets, particularly given our strong growth in revenues and steadily increasing reserves, and our Valley deserves nothing less.

We must break the cycle of repeated misinformation and deception that our budgeting process has placed at the heart of our relationships with our teachers, staff, and community. Only then can we rebuild the trust necessary for effective educational reform, reform that our Valley deserves.

8. Would you like to say anything else?

No, thank you.

From the Courtroom to the Newsroom: The Polarization of Perception.

"Truth and fairness are tested, as old sturdy pillars strain under new pressure."

© 2023, CC-BY-SA 3.0.

The American justice system, a cornerstone of our democracy, is being tested in light of the ongoing federal criminal case against former President Donald J. Trump. Peter Baker's article in The New York Times brings to light the challenge that Trump's attempts to discredit the charges pose to the public's perception of justice. This is reminiscent of the decline in the perceived credibility of news outlets, further reflecting the ways in which our democratic institutions are grappling with challenges of legitimacy and trust.

The erosion of the Fairness Doctrine in 1987 has contributed significantly to the polarization of American media and the general public's discourse. As partisan voices like Rush Limbaugh dominated the airwaves without presenting balanced viewpoints, we have witnessed a similar trend in political communication, with accusations of bias and corruption becoming more prevalent.

This context is critical in understanding Trump's current strategy. Facing multiple felony counts, Trump's response has not been limited to defending himself but includes an active attempt to portray the justice system as partisan and corrupt. This narrative echoes his past efforts to discredit news outlets by labeling them "fake news," a strategy that resonates with a considerable portion of the public in a politically polarized landscape.

The parallels between the public's perception of the media and the justice system are striking. In both cases, the integrity of the institution is questioned, contributing to an environment of skepticism and polarization. Just as the case of Fox News' settlement with Dominion Voting Systems highlighted the dangers of unbalanced reporting, Trump's attempts to delegitimize the justice system underscore the risks associated with the loss of public trust in democratic institutions.

The key challenge now is to restore trust in these institutions by promoting transparency, accountability, and balanced perspectives. These principles, central to both journalism and justice, are fundamental to the functioning of our democracy. We must not only recognize the parallels between the challenges faced by our democratic institutions but also learn from each other in our efforts to address these issues. Ultimately, the survival and integrity of our democracy depend on our ability to trust these institutions to uphold truth, justice, and fairness.

The Silent Struggle: LGBTQIA+ Rights in Contemporary China.

"China's firm door shuts on vibrant rainbow's portal. Rights fade in the hush.

Voices silenced now as the vibrant spectrum dims. Human rights obscured."

© 2023, CC-BY-SA 3.0.

In a recent article from The Economist titled "Why the Communist Party Fears Gay Rights," the authors shed light on the harsh reality for LGBTQIA+ communities in China, under the rule of President Xi Jinping. The current atmosphere is characterized by increased power of security agencies and ideological commissars, leading to a systematic closure of LGBTQIA+ support groups.

The Chinese government seems to view sexual minorities as a political risk, stressing national security over morality in its dealings with gay-rights advocates. Despite more social tolerance for LGBTQIA+ individuals, they face strict regulations against forming communities, which is deemed a more serious offense.

The Beijing LGBTQIA+ Centre, which had existed for over 15 years, recently announced its closure. The center, among other accomplishments, had successfully filed a lawsuit in 2014 against a clinic providing electroshock therapy to "convert" gay patients. This closure, among others, is seen as a significant setback for LGBTQIA+ rights.

Interestingly, the article highlighted a shift in public sentiment. As an example, the authors referred to a 2019 case when the public was allowed to submit comments on new marriage regulations, and many citizens recommended changing "husband and wife" to "spouses" as a step towards recognizing same-sex marriages. But the Chinese government has yet to make any legislative changes reflecting this sentiment, and several groups advocating for this change have since been shut down.

The article also discusses corporate capitulation to government pressure. For instance, in 2020, a gay flight attendant at state-owned China Southern was fired for a public display of affection with a male pilot, leading to public controversy. Additionally, WeChat, the widely-used social media app, shut down dozens of accounts related to LGBTQIA+ topics.

As for the future, the authors point to an increasing sense of isolation among young people due to a lack of safe spaces for discussion. They further argue that the Chinese Communist Party perceives vulnerable groups such as the LGBTQIA+ community, feminists, labor activists, and ethnic minorities as potential instruments of subversion by foreign influences. As a result, these marginalized groups are viewed more as security threats than deserving of compassion in the current sociopolitical climate of China.

AI and Legal Practice: The Cloud's Impact on the Ground.

"Technology, Hands, Agreement."

© 2023 PXFuel.

Free for Commercial Use.

via pxfuel.com

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to evolve within the expansive cloud of technology, its impact is becoming increasingly evident in traditionally conservative fields such as the legal profession. The transformative power of AI, much like the influence of air and naval strategies in the historical context, is reshaping the ground realities of the profession, underlining the importance of the events happening "in the cloud".

In a June 6, 2023 Economist article, AI is portrayed as a tool with the potential to fundamentally alter the workings of law firms and the practice of law. Similar to how tactical decisions made at sea or in the air during World War II, as explained by Victor Davis Hanson, mattered because they could drastically affect the outcomes on the ground, the AI developments "in the cloud" are influencing the strategies and operations on the ground level in the legal field.

Today's legal profession, shaped by its current challenges and advancements, provides the context for its future evolution. A recent Goldman Sachs report suggests that up to 44% of legal tasks could be automated by AI, indicating a profound shift set to redefine traditional practices. However, the integration of AI into the legal field also brings challenges. There are concerns about AI's ability to convincingly present falsehoods and the critical need to safeguard sensitive attorney-client privileged information.

In charting the future of the legal profession, the concept of a Markov Chain offers a useful analogy: the state of the system at a given moment (the "present state") heavily influences what will happen next, while prior states (the "past") hold little sway. As AI continues to evolve and exert influence over diverse sectors, this idea becomes especially relevant to the legal field. The power of AI to address contemporary challenges should be the guiding force shaping the profession's future, rather than lingering attachments to historical practices.

The transformative potential of AI has been established. However, its integration into the legal field isn't merely about introducing a new tool or streamlining existing processes. It's about leveraging AI's capabilities to address the unique and complex issues that the profession currently confronts and will confront in the future. The legal profession is an evolving system of conflict mediation, contract review, policy formulation, and, ultimately, a facilitator of organic social life. The role of AI in this context isn't just to automate tasks but to enhance the profession's capacity to perform these functions more effectively and efficiently.

As the profession grapples with AI integration, it's critical to remember that AI isn't an end but a means to an end. The goal isn't to mold the profession according to what AI can do, but rather, to harness AI in service of the profession's purpose. This doesn't mean discarding the past entirely. Indeed, the principles that have defined the profession, such as justice, fairness, and adherence to the law, remain essential. They must guide the profession's AI journey, ensuring that AI is used in ways that amplify these principles rather than undermine them.

To navigate this journey successfully, the legal field must recognize that its present state is the most relevant factor for determining its future. Rather than clinging to past practices or fearing the future, the profession should focus on addressing its current challenges using the best tools available, which now include AI. In doing so, the profession can ensure that it not only survives but thrives in an AI-enhanced future, effectively serving society while staying true to its core principles.

Minor Trims on Major Issues: The Triviality of Current U.S. Debt Ceiling Negotiations.

Sunset, Yosemite Valley.

© 2013 Dliff.

CC BY-SA 3.0.

via Wikimedia Commons.

In an article today in the New York Times, Jim Tankersley discusses the ongoing negotiations between President Biden and House Republicans concerning the U.S. debt ceiling. The primary focus of these talks has been to curtail nondefense discretionary spending, which encompasses areas such as education, environmental protection, and national parks. However, this sector represents less than 15% of the government's anticipated spending of $6.3 trillion for the year. Meanwhile, the negotiations have precluded any substantial changes to Social Security and Medicare, which account for the majority of future projected spending growth, and military spending, which rivals nondefense discretionary expenditure in size.

The proposed budget cuts chiefly target areas that are not primary sources of spending growth in the upcoming years, such as education and environmental protection. The reductions could lead to a 30% decrease in many popular government programs, according to White House officials and independent analysts. Additionally, the negotiations are unfolding in the wake of a substantial spike in federal spending during the Covid-19 pandemic under both President Trump and President Biden's administrations. Despite this increase, the Congressional Budget Office expects a modest drop in total government spending for this fiscal year, followed by a rise later in the decade.

The projected increase in federal spending over the coming decades is attributed primarily to major federal health programs and Social Security. These trends were apparent even before President Biden took office. The current negotiations, with their focus on trimming relatively small parts of the budget, have been criticized from both ends of the political spectrum. The stalemate over addressing mandatory spending programs and the nation's tax system continues with no immediate solution in sight. The trajectory suggests that an agreement capable of significantly altering federal spending in the future is unlikely under the current approach.

Balancing Equity and Efficiency: The Case for Congestion Pricing on Highway 37.

 "Road Pricing in Singapore."

© 2007 VK35.

CC BY-SA 3.0.

via Wikimedia Commons.

Highway 37 is once again making headlines. A recent article by Susan Wood for The North Bay Business Journal announced that the California Transportation Commission has endorsed a Metropolitan Transportation Commission proposal to institute a toll on State Route 37. The exact toll figure is yet to be established, but it's expected to reflect the $7 charge for San Francisco Bay Area bridges, projected to rise to $8 by 2025. The toll approval includes two amendments, namely regional income-based discounts and revised guidelines for toll hearings. The projected toll's purpose is to help fund the $430 million expansion of the highway, currently carrying over 35,000 vehicles per day, predominantly from Solano County and the City of Vallejo.

The toll implementation on Highway 37 should consider the integration of a congestion pricing system, where fees vary based on traffic volume. This approach addresses several critical policy principles. Higher charges during busy hours promote vertical equity, as those choosing to drive at such times are often more financially able. It might also enhance efficiency by discouraging traffic during peak times, facilitating more effective highway use. Despite being more intricate than a single flat toll, current technology can simplify comprehension and compliance with variable pricing. Revenue sufficiency might be amplified by earning more during peak periods, contributing to highway upgrades. Congestion pricing might spur economic growth by reducing traffic and rendering the highway more attractive to businesses and commuters. It may also be more politically acceptable than a flat toll, as it provides drivers the option to evade higher costs by traveling during quieter periods. This approach's potential improvements in efficiency and equity might enhance the overall effectiveness of the toll policy. Hence, the adoption of congestion pricing for Highway 37 could better align with the tenets of an effective and fair policy, optimize the highway's efficiency, and secure the required revenue for its upgrades.

In contrast, a flat toll without supplemental congestion pricing has inherent shortcomings. While it exhibits horizontal equity by holding all drivers equally responsible, it lacks vertical equity as it is uniformly applied regardless of income. Public acceptability varies, with some considering it essential and others protesting the increased commuting cost. The toll is intended to cover a substantial portion of the $430 million needed for road enhancements, but a $250 million funding shortfall suggests potential insufficiency. Without price signals to enhance roadway efficiency or encouragement for better usage, a flat toll may prove deficient in areas like vertical equity and revenue sufficiency. Consequently, it could be less politically viable.

Potpourri for Friday, May 19, 2023.

"CA-37 at Sears Point."

© 2007 Aztecrosales.

CC BY-SA 3.0.

via Wikimedia Commons.

The Thursday edition of the Press Democrat headlined three stories, each focusing on local roadway issues. The first, by Susan Wood, reported that the Metropolitan Transportation Commission had unanimously agreed to impose a toll on California's State Route 37. The toll aims to generate funding for upcoming enhancements to the highway. These include adding a lane and raising the entire route to combat flooding. The widening project, costing $430 million, and a $6 billion flood prevention initiative are due to start in 2025 and will span multiple years until completion. However, it's important to note that no plans have been formulated to manage potential increased traffic on the Napa River Bridge, a possible alternative route for those wishing to avoid the toll.

Madison Smalstig wrote about commencement of a $29 million repair program targeting nearly 50 miles of Sonoma County roads. The project, planned for this summer, involves paving, sealing cracks, and removing vegetation to address the poor conditions of these roads. Despite over $203 million invested in the past, the overall condition of the county's extensive 1,368-mile road network has only marginally improved. To elevate the roads to a "good" to "very good" standard, the county estimates a necessary investment of $954 million over two decades, amounting to about $47.7 million annually. The topic of road financing issues and the subpar condition of Sonoma County's roads has been a recurring theme on this blog.

Lastly, Amelia Parreira describes a new development in Petaluma. The City Council gave a green light to proceed with the proposed Caulfield crosstown connector bridge. Estimated to cost $48.5 million, the project involves the construction of a 300-foot movable bridge over the Petaluma River. Expected to be operational by 2026, the bridge will improve citywide connectivity and reduce traffic congestion. It will not only serve drivers but also provide a more accessible route for pedestrians and cyclists. Given the longstanding bottleneck at D Street and the peculiar layout near the 101/116 interchange in Southern Petaluma, the construction of this bridge, first proposed in 2006, seems like a logical solution. This highlights the prolonged timelines all too often required to implement meaningful transportation projects in Sonoma County.

Struggling for Equality: The Battle Over Same-Sex Marriage in Japan.

"Tokyo Rainbow Pride in 2016"

© 2016 Nesnad.

CC BY-SA 4.0

via Wikimedia Commons.

Motoko Rich and Hikari Hida from The New York Times delve into the escalating tension in Japan over the legalization of same-sex unions. Japan stands alone as the only G7 country where same-sex marriage is not legal, despite public opinion being largely in favor. However, conservative entities, notably the Shinto Association of Spiritual Leadership and affiliates of the Unification Church, propagate an opposing viewpoint, likening homosexuality to an "addiction" that can be "cured." As international pressure mounts for Japan to champion equality, lawmakers have offered a tepid response, drafting a bill calling for no unfair discrimination against LGBTQIA+ individuals, although critics argue it falls short compared to a previous failed proposal.

These religiously associated organizations exert significant influence within the conservative political sphere, even though they may not echo the sentiments of their followers or the broader public. The national Shinto association, deeply interwoven with Japan's culture and traditions, uses its ideological drive to sway lawmakers on various social matters. Concurrently, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, acknowledging the distinct circumstances of each country, stresses the need for a comprehensive dialogue on same-sex marriage. Yet, the political sway of the religious right, demonstrated through the assassination of Shinzo Abe and the implication of the Unification Church, overshadows these discussions.

Despite these challenges, the LGBTQIA+ community in Japan perseveres in their struggle for equal rights, with an increasing number of municipalities offering same-sex partnerships and legal challenges to the constitutionality of the non-recognition of same-sex marriages. Amidst these efforts, foreign diplomats led by U.S. envoy Rahm Emanuel continue to advocate for LGBTQIA+ rights, drawing attention to the strong public endorsement for same-sex marriage. As Japan contends with demographic changes, the call for embracing diversity and immigration reform grows stronger. Corporations such as Suntory and Coca-Cola Japan signal a shift towards inclusivity, underscoring the resilience and diversity of Japan's LGBTQIA+ culture.

Banking on Trouble: The SVB Collapse and its Impact on Financial Stability.

Gregory Becker.

2015 US Department of Labor.

Public Domain.

via Wikimedia Commons.

In a New York Times article by Rob Copeland, Gregory Becker, former Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) CEO, defended his actions before a Senate Banking Committee hearing regarding the bank's failure. Becker deflected blame onto regulators, the media, and inflation-induced interest rate hikes. SVB's downfall, fueled by large investments in low-yielding government bonds and a high proportion of uninsured accounts, has triggered a debate around banking regulations. Becker, who earned nearly $10 million in 2022, faced questions about his compensation and potential return of bonuses. Senators critiqued his failure to accept personal responsibility.

An Economist article, "The prop-up job", provides an in-depth analysis of SVB's collapse. The authors posit the bank's rapid downfall exposed signs of instability in the U.S. banking system, despite post-financial-crisis regulations. The article highlights the implications of abandoning the "Lombard Street" rule of central banking, leading to potential instability. It also draws parallels to the banking crises of the 1980s under then-Fed chairman, Paul Volcker. According to historian Peter Conti-Brown, rising rates subtly affect interest-rate and credit risk, and can strain borrowers. The authors suggest that the banking system is more vulnerable than previously thought and smaller banks, especially those with uninsured deposits, may need to increase capital soon.

The "Lombard Street rule" or Bagehot's dictum, articulated in Walter Bagehot's "Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market", argues for the Bank of England's role as a lender of last resort during financial crises to maintain stability. Bagehot proposes that in times of panic, the bank should offer high-rate loans to solvent firms against good collateral, ensuring sufficient reserves to meet demands and deter non-serious borrowers. This approach has significantly influenced modern central banking policy.

The breakdown of Bagehot's dictum has a predictable result, illustrated in Bagehot's other great work, "The English Constitution." There, he details the vital role the House of Commons plays in the British political system. Bagehot positions the Commons, including the Cabinet formed from it, as the power center reflecting the electorate's will, controlling fiscal matters, and determining legislation. Additionally, the Commons facilitates communication between the government and its people, conveying public opinions, desires, and grievances to the state and justifying state actions and decisions to the public.

Becker's congressional hearing underscores the significant role of Congress, the American equivalent of the Commons (Senate and House both being subject to popular elections) in addressing banking sector instability. This step opens a much-needed debate on banking regulations. Although the hearing was marked by partisan disagreements, it offered an opportunity to question actions leading to SVB's failure and to assess executive accountability. As Bagehot stressed, the banking system, along with regulatory bodies like the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury, must ensure financial stability. Therefore, this incident should alert CEOs across the industry to the need for coordinated efforts to strengthen the banking system's integrity, even if Bagehot's dictum, as a practical matter, may apply no longer to any but the smallest of U.S. banks. 

America's Debt Dilemma: Hitting the Ceiling.

"The Republican Elephant."

Thomas Nast, 1874.

Public Domain.

via Wikimedia Commons.

The Economist this week writes about America's continued struggle with the debt ceiling. As Congress and the White House continue to negotiate, America is in danger of defaulting on its debt in a few weeks, with neither Republicans nor Democrats willing to compromise. The Treasury could bypass the debt ceiling by minting a colossal commemorative coin and depositing it into the government's account at the Federal Reserve, which would allow for the payment of government expenses without borrowing from public markets. The Biden administration has a few options including invoking the 14th Amendment and issuing high-coupon low face-value bonds, to bypass the debt ceiling and resume borrowing. 

Despite the risk of litigation and the potential for market disruption, the possibility of brutal austerity as a workaround for Treasury debt payments has pushed policymakers to consider unconventional, yet ingenious plans. Treasury officials are uncertain of their ability to implement prioritization of payments and regularly sell bonds in order to pay off their debt, and if dealers decline to participate, the whole plan could be thrown into jeopardy. Faced with the risk of default, prioritizing payments to bondholders may be necessary to get both sides to reach a deal, but could have big costs. However, as almost every observer has noted, the world's biggest economy should not be managed in this manner. 

I've written previously on this, noting that the Biden administration's exploration of using the 14th Amendment to challenge the current federal borrowing limit has prompted heated debate among economic and legal advisors. Meanwhile, Kevin McCarthy is facing his first major test in leading the House of Representatives in Congress' negotiations to lift the debt ceiling, a controversial issue that requires bipartisan compromise while weighing both fiscal responsibility and the need for austerity. The ripple effects of the rise of the far-right within the Republican Party have left lasting damage to both faith in the political system and the party's overall stability. The rising tensions within the Republican Party over the debt ceiling are making it increasingly difficult to present a unified stance. To move ahead successfully, the Republican Party must find ways to address the factors contributing to its internal divisions and disarray.

The Battle for Democracy: Turkish Elections, Deepfakes, and the Threat to Press Freedom.

"The Demagogue"

 José Clemente Orozco, 1946.

Public Domain.

via Wikimedia Commons.

In an article today by Ben Hubbard and Gulsin Harman from The New York Times, the recent Turkish presidential elections are reported to be heading into a runoff. After failing to secure a majority, the incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will face opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in a two-week battle that could redefine Turkey's political landscape. Erdoğan, having served as Turkey's dominant political figure for 20 years, has seen a decline in his standing due to economic issues and his consolidation of power. Meanwhile, Kılıçdaroğlu represents a coalition of six opposition parties, campaigning as the antithesis of Erdoğan.

Meanwhile, David Klepper and Ali Swenson of The Associated Press this morning discuss the potential political risks posed by advanced artificial intelligence (AI) tools leading up to the 2024 elections. The availability of inexpensive and increasingly sophisticated AI technology has heightened concerns about the creation of convincing deepfakes, including fake images, videos, and audio. These deepfakes, in conjunction with social media algorithms, have the potential to spread misinformation quickly and target specific audiences, possibly leading to new levels of election manipulation. Experts like A.J. Nash from the cybersecurity firm ZeroFox warn that society is unprepared for the impact of these AI-driven media manipulations, which could be used to confuse voters, slander candidates, or even incite violence. As we approach the 2024 elections, there are increasing calls for legislative measures to combat the potential misuse of AI in political campaigns. 

That may very well be a move too far. Daren Butler of Reuters, in an October 13, 2022 article, noted Erdoğan's use of misinformation and its impact on Turkey's democracy. The article refers to a controversial law enacted by the Turkish parliament, proposed by Erdoğan, which can jail journalists and social media users for up to three years if found guilty of spreading "disinformation". Lawmakers from Erdoğan's ruling AK Party and its nationalist allies MHP, who collectively had a majority in the parliament, approved the bill despite strong opposition from both national and international critics. These critics argue that the law's vague definition of "false or misleading information" could be exploited to suppress dissent.

Engin Altay, a member of the main opposition Republican People's Party, expressed concerns that the law will further limit press freedom in a country already lagging behind in this area. The AK Party, without shame, claims that the legislation is necessary to combat misinformation and false accusations on social media, asserting it will not be used to suppress opposition voices. The fairly clear intent of the legislation is to control narratives and limit critical voices, thereby influencing public opinion. Reuters' investigation highlighted the state of media freedom in Turkey, describing mainstream media as adhering to government-approved headlines while independent and opposition media face penalties. The Venice Commission, an advisory body to the Council of Europe, expressed concerns that this law could induce a "chilling effect and increased self-censorship" ahead of the elections.

The proliferation of misinformation, further magnified by artificial intelligence, presents a considerable challenge to democratic values, underlining the indispensable role of press freedom. Drawing parallels with Kléōn's emotional manipulation in the Mytilenean Debate, contemporary misinformation leverages public sentiment, especially anger, to influence portions of the electorate. However, Aristotélēs maintained that the robustness of democracy resides in the collective wisdom of its populace. This collective wisdom, cultivated from a variety of perspectives and experiences, tends to yield clear choices, exemplifying the tenacity of democratic systems. There's an expectation that the probabilities underpinning the Condorcet Jury Theorem have remained (mostly) unaffected by misinformation. However, it's almost certain that augmenting governmental control over information could lead to a detrimental shift. Other than ongoing voter education, few options exist to ensure that clear choices will still surface in the aggregate. The freedom of the press remains a key factor in assuring that the electorate is well-informed and capable of exercising its collective wisdom, thereby reinforcing the effective functioning of democratic systems, despite the emergence of AI-powered misinformation or even more worryingly, justifications for state control of the press based on such grounds.

Questions from the Press, Friday, May 12, 2023.

Miles Trachtenberg

Heather Kelly Trachtenberg

I received questions today from Dan Johnson of the Sonoma Index-Tribune regarding last night's decision by the trustees of the Sonoma Valley Unified School District to proceed with construction of the Science Building at Sonoma Valley High School. Per my past practice, I post the questions and my answers below. 

I have attached a picture of my nephew, Miles, and my sister, Heather. Miles is graduating in a few weeks from his high school, the Houston Academy for International Studies, and at the same time has earned an associates in arts (AA) degree from Houston Community College, as he completed the work for both at the same time. He was also, incidentally, the prom king. Well done Miles!

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1. Did the board approve the original agenda item—to approve the lease-lease back agreement—or did it simply vote to move forward with constructing the new science wing?

My understanding of the item is that it was approved as agendized. A lease-leaseback arrangement covers both the design and construction of a building, which allows collaboration with the builder throughout the process, an innovation that has resulted in lowered construction costs, and closer adherence to the agreed-to designs in school projects across California. The lease-leaseback approach aims to involve both the contractor and architect early in the project to, hopefully, minimize expensive changes after construction starts, ensuring the project stays within the initially established price. The method normally encourages close collaboration between the architect and builder from the beginning and throughout the project. In contrast, the traditional design-bid-build process often lacks this level of coordination, as design documents are completed before the contractor's involvement.

This particular lease-leaseback arrangement was entered into several years ago, but commencing construction under the terms of the lease-leaseback itself requires approval from the board. Again, my understanding of the agenda item was that we were approving construction pursuant to the original lease-leaseback arrangement.

2. So, does this mean that the school district has not arranged yet for a construction company to build the science wing? I thought that a construction company had been determined. If so, what is the name of the construction company and what is the significance of the lease-lease back agreement?

The relationship with the contractor, GCCI, was formed at the time of the inception of the lease-leaseback relationship, which is normal and routine. We are continuing with the agreed-to contractor, which is what I would expect if the District did indeed intend to follow through and make the bond expenditure. However, we are not required to do so -- as a District we have the discretion to decline to proceed. Especially given the greatly modified scope of this particular project, which has been transformed from a mere remodel to a complete demolition and reconstruction, it would not have been unexpected for this project not to have gone forward.

3. I see that the modernization is estimated to cost $15,484,390, quite a bit higher than the original estimate of $8,684,390. Why has the cost increased so much?

We are now demolishing the existing building and commencing construction on an entirely new one, a very different proposition from the original proposal. Further, the costs of remodeling included many accommodations to the existing design, making it essentially no different from, and perhaps even more expensive than, simply knocking down the building and starting over. However, the remodel was initially conceived as a cost-saving measure to avoid having to construct a completely new building. Had the District known that remodeling would essentially involve a decision to demolish, I feel the decision probably would have gone a different way.

4. The new science wing was scheduled to be built by summer 2024. Will this still be the case? When will construction begin?

My belief is that demolition will begin shortly after the conclusion of classes in June. I defer to staff and the contractor regarding the expected completion date. 

5. Will the district be able to pay for the new science wing strictly through Measure E funds?

It is the belief of the District that it will be able to do so. Several of our bond projects have run over cost significantly. We have little room left for error at this point.

6. It seemed that most of the concerns about approving this agenda item centered around costs to improve facilities at Altimira Middle School. What work needs to be done at Altimira?

Seven Altimira buildings were constructed via "tilt-up," and they constitute the bulk of the Altimira campus. Tilt-Up construction features series of concrete panels tilted up into place to form a building's exterior wall. These panels are created at the work site using wood forms, rebar and concrete. The forms are shaped and rebar cut to match the final designs. Next, concrete is poured into the forms and finished. 

While the technique was popular in the middle of the 20th century due to the perceived lower cost associated with the method, in the longer term the price associated with maintaining adherence with seismic safety standards ultimately makes it no less, and perhaps more expensive that competing methods of construction. During the preparation of the facilities master plan by Perkins Eastman, the consultants brought to light the SB 300 status of Altimira’s buildings. These buildings do not meet current seismic safety standards and SVUSD will be required to conduct a retrofit (at best) and perhaps will have to demolish and reconstruct these buildings in the near future, as the structures simply do not meet contemporary seismic safety standards -- a fact only brought to light in January of 2023. 

7. Why wasn’t the work at Altimira included in the list of bond projects?

The process of choosing projects on which to expend bond dollars was supposed to be guided by the principle of "safe, warm and dry." Safety was, at all times, intended to be the guiding principle in project prioritization. I have had disappointment over and over again at how the politicization of construction in the District has led to very different priorities being advanced. Ultimately, the bond expenditure program ended up being a series of compromises between competing groups all with legitimate claims to the expenditure of resources. My belief is that we as a District cannot allow that to occur again, and we must make sure to constrain, in the drafting of the bond measure language, the projects the trustees are allowed to expend funds regarding. 

8. How much do you expect the work at Altimira will cost?

I don't know. I have asked repeatedly for an estimate. Perkins Eastman represented to me they would have an estimate several times, including at our March and April meetings, but no information has been forthcoming. 

My expectation, at this point, is that the buildings will all need to be demolished and reconstructed, and I expect each will cost in the range of $10-$15 million. In aggregate, I would not be surprised if the total figure is between $70-$100 million as a consequence. 

While our business officials have expressed hope that remediation may be an order of magnitude less than this, more in the range of $5-$7 million, their reticence in committing to that figure is the "tell," so to speak, regarding the confidence anyone can have in that back-of-the-envelope calculation. 

9. Do you anticipate that another bond measure will need to be passed to do the work at Altimira, or can it be paid for in another way?

There was a lot of general language shared in the meeting regarding alternative funding mechanisms. Among the suggestions was the sale of District property, a complete nonstarter as far as I am concerned. CDOs, or collateralized debt obligations, are of course available, but because those are backstopped by the District's general fund, they should not be used in my opinion unless the project to which they are dedicated is revenue-generating. While there is some state money, and redevelopment agency funds anticipated to be received in future years that could potentially be securitized, none of these are appropriate for the construction of ordinary school facilities that were and are the top-line priority for past and future bond campaigns. Simply put, if we're not using bond monies for seismic safety, what are we using them for in the first place? Is there any higher priority than student safety in an earthquake, particularly for a school that serves our most disadvantaged student population? 

10. Do you think that it is likely that a bond measure could pass, and would other district needs be included in it?

This is too contingent of a question to answer at this time. SVUSD's record of bond expenditures makes clear that any language in a future bond will have to be carefully scrutinized before it is allowed to go to the voters. Having witnessed the gap between the reality of how bond funds have been spent, and how they were represented to the public in the first place, I would be very uncomfortable ever bringing such general language to the voters again. The legitimacy and accuracy of the bond offering is critical to ensuring that the funds are expended as the voters intended, and that just didn't happen in the past. 

11. You indicated that you felt there were strong arguments both for and against moving ahead with building the science wing. Please summarize your thoughts. 

Only the most trivial of arguments are easily disproved, and as trustees we know we are grappling with our essential duties when strong arguments can be deployed both pro and con. Here, support for science education is amongst the top priorities of our trustees. Remodeling our buildings that serve that important program will help equip our students for success in a future yet to be imagined, let alone fully described. I can understand the inclinations of my fellow trustees to proceed with the project given that important priority. Further, the fact that it has taken this long to reach this important project is again a further testament to how other projects, of less import to our constituents, were nonetheless advanced on the District's construction calendar. 

Change is difficult. It is scary to confront the costs that we may be facing at Altimira. As our business officials noted, the costs at Altimira may be so high that the remaining bond funds would be inadequate to address the issue, and the science building project is ready to commence. However, our voters expect us to prioritize given the facts that this board confronts, not the ones faced by another board in another time. The clear problems at Altimira, and the lack of any guidance given to the trustees on those costs, while the trustees were urged to approve this science building project that is now nearly double its initial estimates, justified caution in proceeding and the trustees should have obtained more information before approving the science building. Thus, the source of disagreement I think did not turn on the merits of the science building itself, but whether the appropriate amount of information had been provided to the trustees to weigh the competing interests. A special meeting could have been scheduled in a week or ten days to review estimates of Altimira and make a fully informed decision; the fact that the trustees did not wait to obtain that before proceeding was thus the ultimate source of disagreement at the meeting last night. 

12. How will building a new science wing enhance education for Sonoma Valley High School students?

New facilities are amongst the clearest ways we, as a District, can show our commitment to a particular program, and science education lies at the core of our current understanding of how to prepare our graduates for college and career. Existing facilities do not meet the needs of our program, as articulated by our educators. I trust their evaluation of this, and the science building is indeed a priority. 

There are alternatives to new construction, including the fact that as our enrollment and attendance decline, we have a surfeit of classrooms and structures available for repurposing. There was not a detailed discussion of those alternatives, and I would have liked to have seen if there were other options before proceeding. There were discussions about whether that information could be provided quickly, and I think it would have been appropriate for the trustees to consider this before proceeding.

13. Would you like to say anything else?

I believe that my fellow trustees are acting to resolve competing claims to resources, which is a classic function of a school board. It is right and proper that they should do this. However, I believe prudence here would have guided us to conserve bond funds, in an effort to demonstrate this board is aware of the issues with prior bond expenditures and knows the public is observing how well our governance team matches professed values with those practiced and applied over time. We as a District should be doing all we can to conserve resources to address those most critical of issues, and it is hard to find any more important in the context of facilities than seismic safety. While I realize those who serve as trustees with me now were not those who made earlier decisions regarding the expenditure of bond funds, we have collective responsibility for the operations of the District and we must recognize that the public will not distinguish us from one another when evaluating whether to support future bond expenditures, which will inevitably be necessary to maintain the quality of instruction our community wants and deserves. I remain committed to working with my fellow trustees to navigate these difficult questions in the future, despite our disagreement at times over priorities, such as we had last night over this construction decision.

Boxed Wines: When It's Hip to Be Square.

"Coravin Model Two Wine Preservation Opener."

© 2017 JGuzman.

CC BY-SA 4.0.

via Wikimedia Commons.

In a recent article published by The New York Times, Eric Asimov discusses the growing popularity and quality of boxed wines, primarily driven by environmental concerns. While boxed wines have faced resistance in the past due to perceptions of lower quality, this is changing as more producers and merchants choose bag-in-box packaging for wines not intended for cellaring. This shift is driven by the fact that wine bottles are a significant environmental problem, contributing to the wine industry's carbon footprint, and a low percentage of glass is recycled in the United States. Bag-in-box packaging offers several advantages, including preserving the wine's freshness for longer periods and reducing waste, making it a suitable option for wines not meant for aging.

Asimov, however, briefly mentions an important factor that contributes to the stigma around boxed wine: its unsuitability for wines intended to age more than a year. More expensive wines often require cellaring to reach their full potential, which necessitates the use of glass bottles -- meaning the highest quality wines will be linked with glass. This is a significant obstacle to boxed wine's acceptance, even if a marketing team on par with Apple were to make the "unboxing" experience more attractive. The perception (and indeed fact) of wine in a glass bottle as a higher-end product may thus hinder the progress of environmentally friendly alternatives.

Moreover, it's important to recognize two separate innovations in this space: the use of cardboard as a container and the vacuum-sealed bag that extends the wine's shelf life after opening. The latter, in the context of higher-end wines, is typically where Coravin technology is utilized. A vacuum-sealed bag is a far better solution than needles through corks and argon containers. A system that could combine the best of the two, allowing decanting into a vacuum-sealed enclosure that provides some of the time extension advantages, would avoid the unwieldy elements of Coravin. A competitor that streamlines the process while maintaining a high-quality image may be better poised to meet the needs of consumers, if not specifically addressing the carbon footprint and environmental impact of the industry.