Friday, May 19, 2023

Potpourri for Friday, May 19, 2023.

"CA-37 at Sears Point."
© 2007 Aztecrosales.
The Thursday edition of the Press Democrat headlined three stories, each focusing on local roadway issues. The first, by Susan Wood, reported that the Metropolitan Transportation Commission had unanimously agreed to impose a toll on California's State Route 37. The toll aims to generate funding for upcoming enhancements to the highway. These include adding a lane and raising the entire route to combat flooding. The widening project, costing $430 million, and a $6 billion flood prevention initiative are due to start in 2025 and will span multiple years until completion. However, it's important to note that no plans have been formulated to manage potential increased traffic on the Napa River Bridge, a possible alternative route for those wishing to avoid the toll.

Madison Smalstig wrote about commencement of a $29 million repair program targeting nearly 50 miles of Sonoma County roads. The project, planned for this summer, involves paving, sealing cracks, and removing vegetation to address the poor conditions of these roads. Despite over $203 million invested in the past, the overall condition of the county's extensive 1,368-mile road network has only marginally improved. To elevate the roads to a "good" to "very good" standard, the county estimates a necessary investment of $954 million over two decades, amounting to about $47.7 million annually. The topic of road financing issues and the subpar condition of Sonoma County's roads has been a recurring theme on this blog.

Lastly, Amelia Parreira describes a new development in Petaluma. The City Council gave a green light to proceed with the proposed Caulfield crosstown connector bridge. Estimated to cost $48.5 million, the project involves the construction of a 300-foot movable bridge over the Petaluma River. Expected to be operational by 2026, the bridge will improve citywide connectivity and reduce traffic congestion. It will not only serve drivers but also provide a more accessible route for pedestrians and cyclists. Given the longstanding bottleneck at D Street and the peculiar layout near the 101/116 interchange in Southern Petaluma, the construction of this bridge, first proposed in 2006, seems like a logical solution. This highlights the prolonged timelines all too often required to implement meaningful transportation projects in Sonoma County.

Thursday, May 18, 2023

Struggling for Equality: The Battle Over Same-Sex Marriage in Japan.

"Tokyo Rainbow Pride in 2016"
© 2016 Nesnad.
Motoko Rich and Hikari Hida from The New York Times delve into the escalating tension in Japan over the legalization of same-sex unions. Japan stands alone as the only G7 country where same-sex marriage is not legal, despite public opinion being largely in favor. However, conservative entities, notably the Shinto Association of Spiritual Leadership and affiliates of the Unification Church, propagate an opposing viewpoint, likening homosexuality to an "addiction" that can be "cured." As international pressure mounts for Japan to champion equality, lawmakers have offered a tepid response, drafting a bill calling for no unfair discrimination against LGBTQIA+ individuals, although critics argue it falls short compared to a previous failed proposal.

These religiously associated organizations exert significant influence within the conservative political sphere, even though they may not echo the sentiments of their followers or the broader public. The national Shinto association, deeply interwoven with Japan's culture and traditions, uses its ideological drive to sway lawmakers on various social matters. Concurrently, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, acknowledging the distinct circumstances of each country, stresses the need for a comprehensive dialogue on same-sex marriage. Yet, the political sway of the religious right, demonstrated through the assassination of Shinzo Abe and the implication of the Unification Church, overshadows these discussions.

Despite these challenges, the LGBTQIA+ community in Japan perseveres in their struggle for equal rights, with an increasing number of municipalities offering same-sex partnerships and legal challenges to the constitutionality of the non-recognition of same-sex marriages. Amidst these efforts, foreign diplomats led by U.S. envoy Rahm Emanuel continue to advocate for LGBTQIA+ rights, drawing attention to the strong public endorsement for same-sex marriage. As Japan contends with demographic changes, the call for embracing diversity and immigration reform grows stronger. Corporations such as Suntory and Coca-Cola Japan signal a shift towards inclusivity, underscoring the resilience and diversity of Japan's LGBTQIA+ culture.

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

Banking on Trouble: The SVB Collapse and its Impact on Financial Stability.

Gregory Becker.
2015 US Department of Labor.
In a New York Times article by Rob Copeland, Gregory Becker, former Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) CEO, defended his actions before a Senate Banking Committee hearing regarding the bank's failure. Becker deflected blame onto regulators, the media, and inflation-induced interest rate hikes. SVB's downfall, fueled by large investments in low-yielding government bonds and a high proportion of uninsured accounts, has triggered a debate around banking regulations. Becker, who earned nearly $10 million in 2022, faced questions about his compensation and potential return of bonuses. Senators critiqued his failure to accept personal responsibility.

An Economist article, "The prop-up job", provides an in-depth analysis of SVB's collapse. The authors posit the bank's rapid downfall exposed signs of instability in the U.S. banking system, despite post-financial-crisis regulations. The article highlights the implications of abandoning the "Lombard Street" rule of central banking, leading to potential instability. It also draws parallels to the banking crises of the 1980s under then-Fed chairman, Paul Volcker. According to historian Peter Conti-Brown, rising rates subtly affect interest-rate and credit risk, and can strain borrowers. The authors suggest that the banking system is more vulnerable than previously thought and smaller banks, especially those with uninsured deposits, may need to increase capital soon.

The "Lombard Street rule" or Bagehot's dictum, articulated in Walter Bagehot's "Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market", argues for the Bank of England's role as a lender of last resort during financial crises to maintain stability. Bagehot proposes that in times of panic, the bank should offer high-rate loans to solvent firms against good collateral, ensuring sufficient reserves to meet demands and deter non-serious borrowers. This approach has significantly influenced modern central banking policy.

The breakdown of Bagehot's dictum has a predictable result, illustrated in Bagehot's other great work, "The English Constitution." There, he details the vital role the House of Commons plays in the British political system. Bagehot positions the Commons, including the Cabinet formed from it, as the power center reflecting the electorate's will, controlling fiscal matters, and determining legislation. Additionally, the Commons facilitates communication between the government and its people, conveying public opinions, desires, and grievances to the state and justifying state actions and decisions to the public.

Becker's congressional hearing underscores the significant role of Congress, the American equivalent of the Commons (Senate and House both being subject to popular elections) in addressing banking sector instability. This step opens a much-needed debate on banking regulations. Although the hearing was marked by partisan disagreements, it offered an opportunity to question actions leading to SVB's failure and to assess executive accountability. As Bagehot stressed, the banking system, along with regulatory bodies like the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury, must ensure financial stability. Therefore, this incident should alert CEOs across the industry to the need for coordinated efforts to strengthen the banking system's integrity, even if Bagehot's dictum, as a practical matter, may apply no longer to any but the smallest of U.S. banks. 

Tuesday, May 16, 2023

America's Debt Dilemma: Hitting the Ceiling.

"The Republican Elephant."
Thomas Nast, 1874.

The Economist this week writes about America's continued struggle with the debt ceiling. As Congress and the White House continue to negotiate, America is in danger of defaulting on its debt in a few weeks, with neither Republicans nor Democrats willing to compromise. The Treasury could bypass the debt ceiling by minting a colossal commemorative coin and depositing it into the government's account at the Federal Reserve, which would allow for the payment of government expenses without borrowing from public markets. The Biden administration has a few options including invoking the 14th Amendment and issuing high-coupon low face-value bonds, to bypass the debt ceiling and resume borrowing. 

Despite the risk of litigation and the potential for market disruption, the possibility of brutal austerity as a workaround for Treasury debt payments has pushed policymakers to consider unconventional, yet ingenious plans. Treasury officials are uncertain of their ability to implement prioritization of payments and regularly sell bonds in order to pay off their debt, and if dealers decline to participate, the whole plan could be thrown into jeopardy. Faced with the risk of default, prioritizing payments to bondholders may be necessary to get both sides to reach a deal, but could have big costs. However, as almost every observer has noted, the world's biggest economy should not be managed in this manner. 

I've written previously on this, noting that the Biden administration's exploration of using the 14th Amendment to challenge the current federal borrowing limit has prompted heated debate among economic and legal advisors. Meanwhile, Kevin McCarthy is facing his first major test in leading the House of Representatives in Congress' negotiations to lift the debt ceiling, a controversial issue that requires bipartisan compromise while weighing both fiscal responsibility and the need for austerity. The ripple effects of the rise of the far-right within the Republican Party have left lasting damage to both faith in the political system and the party's overall stability. The rising tensions within the Republican Party over the debt ceiling are making it increasingly difficult to present a unified stance. To move ahead successfully, the Republican Party must find ways to address the factors contributing to its internal divisions and disarray.

Monday, May 15, 2023

The Battle for Democracy: Turkish Elections, Deepfakes, and the Threat to Press Freedom.

"The Demagogue"
In an article today by Ben Hubbard and Gulsin Harman from The New York Times, the recent Turkish presidential elections are reported to be heading into a runoff. After failing to secure a majority, the incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will face opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in a two-week battle that could redefine Turkey's political landscape. Erdoğan, having served as Turkey's dominant political figure for 20 years, has seen a decline in his standing due to economic issues and his consolidation of power. Meanwhile, Kılıçdaroğlu represents a coalition of six opposition parties, campaigning as the antithesis of Erdoğan.

Meanwhile, David Klepper and Ali Swenson of The Associated Press this morning discuss the potential political risks posed by advanced artificial intelligence (AI) tools leading up to the 2024 elections. The availability of inexpensive and increasingly sophisticated AI technology has heightened concerns about the creation of convincing deepfakes, including fake images, videos, and audio. These deepfakes, in conjunction with social media algorithms, have the potential to spread misinformation quickly and target specific audiences, possibly leading to new levels of election manipulation. Experts like A.J. Nash from the cybersecurity firm ZeroFox warn that society is unprepared for the impact of these AI-driven media manipulations, which could be used to confuse voters, slander candidates, or even incite violence. As we approach the 2024 elections, there are increasing calls for legislative measures to combat the potential misuse of AI in political campaigns. 

That may very well be a move too far. Daren Butler of Reuters, in an October 13, 2022 article, noted Erdoğan's use of misinformation and its impact on Turkey's democracy. The article refers to a controversial law enacted by the Turkish parliament, proposed by Erdoğan, which can jail journalists and social media users for up to three years if found guilty of spreading "disinformation". Lawmakers from Erdoğan's ruling AK Party and its nationalist allies MHP, who collectively had a majority in the parliament, approved the bill despite strong opposition from both national and international critics. These critics argue that the law's vague definition of "false or misleading information" could be exploited to suppress dissent.

Engin Altay, a member of the main opposition Republican People's Party, expressed concerns that the law will further limit press freedom in a country already lagging behind in this area. The AK Party, without shame, claims that the legislation is necessary to combat misinformation and false accusations on social media, asserting it will not be used to suppress opposition voices. The fairly clear intent of the legislation is to control narratives and limit critical voices, thereby influencing public opinion. Reuters' investigation highlighted the state of media freedom in Turkey, describing mainstream media as adhering to government-approved headlines while independent and opposition media face penalties. The Venice Commission, an advisory body to the Council of Europe, expressed concerns that this law could induce a "chilling effect and increased self-censorship" ahead of the elections.

The proliferation of misinformation, further magnified by artificial intelligence, presents a considerable challenge to democratic values, underlining the indispensable role of press freedom. Drawing parallels with Kléōn's emotional manipulation in the Mytilenean Debate, contemporary misinformation leverages public sentiment, especially anger, to influence portions of the electorate. However, Aristotélēs maintained that the robustness of democracy resides in the collective wisdom of its populace. This collective wisdom, cultivated from a variety of perspectives and experiences, tends to yield clear choices, exemplifying the tenacity of democratic systems. There's an expectation that the probabilities underpinning the Condorcet Jury Theorem have remained (mostly) unaffected by misinformation. However, it's almost certain that augmenting governmental control over information could lead to a detrimental shift. Other than ongoing voter education, few options exist to ensure that clear choices will still surface in the aggregate. The freedom of the press remains a key factor in assuring that the electorate is well-informed and capable of exercising its collective wisdom, thereby reinforcing the effective functioning of democratic systems, despite the emergence of AI-powered misinformation or even more worryingly, justifications for state control of the press based on such grounds.

Friday, May 12, 2023

Questions from the Press, Friday, May 12, 2023.

Miles Trachtenberg
Heather Kelly Trachtenberg
I received questions today from Dan Johnson of the Sonoma Index-Tribune regarding last night's decision by the trustees of the Sonoma Valley Unified School District to proceed with construction of the Science Building at Sonoma Valley High School. Per my past practice, I post the questions and my answers below. 

I have attached a picture of my nephew, Miles, and my sister, Heather. Miles is graduating in a few weeks from his high school, the Houston Academy for International Studies, and at the same time has earned an associates in arts (AA) degree from Houston Community College, as he completed the work for both at the same time. He was also, incidentally, the prom king. Well done Miles!

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1. Did the board approve the original agenda item—to approve the lease-lease back agreement—or did it simply vote to move forward with constructing the new science wing?

My understanding of the item is that it was approved as agendized. A lease-leaseback arrangement covers both the design and construction of a building, which allows collaboration with the builder throughout the process, an innovation that has resulted in lowered construction costs, and closer adherence to the agreed-to designs in school projects across California. The lease-leaseback approach aims to involve both the contractor and architect early in the project to, hopefully, minimize expensive changes after construction starts, ensuring the project stays within the initially established price. The method normally encourages close collaboration between the architect and builder from the beginning and throughout the project. In contrast, the traditional design-bid-build process often lacks this level of coordination, as design documents are completed before the contractor's involvement.
This particular lease-leaseback arrangement was entered into several years ago, but commencing construction under the terms of the lease-leaseback itself requires approval from the board. Again, my understanding of the agenda item was that we were approving construction pursuant to the original lease-leaseback arrangement.


2. So, does this mean that the school district has not arranged yet for a construction company to build the science wing? I thought that a construction company had been determined. If so, what is the name of the construction company and what is the significance of the lease-lease back agreement?

The relationship with the contractor, GCCI, was formed at the time of the inception of the lease-leaseback relationship, which is normal and routine. We are continuing with the agreed-to contractor, which is what I would expect if the District did indeed intend to follow through and make the bond expenditure. However, we are not required to do so -- as a District we have the discretion to decline to proceed. Especially given the greatly modified scope of this particular project, which has been transformed from a mere remodel to a complete demolition and reconstruction, it would not have been unexpected for this project not to have gone forward.


3. I see that the modernization is estimated to cost $15,484,390, quite a bit higher than the original estimate of $8,684,390. Why has the cost increased so much?

We are now demolishing the existing building and commencing construction on an entirely new one, a very different proposition from the original proposal. Further, the costs of remodeling included many accommodations to the existing design, making it essentially no different from, and perhaps even more expensive than, simply knocking down the building and starting over. However, the remodel was initially conceived as a cost-saving measure to avoid having to construct a completely new building. Had the District known that remodeling would essentially involve a decision to demolish, I feel the decision probably would have gone a different way.


4. The new science wing was scheduled to be built by summer 2024. Will this still be the case? When will construction begin?

My belief is that demolition will begin shortly after the conclusion of classes in June. I defer to staff and the contractor regarding the expected completion date. 


5. Will the district be able to pay for the new science wing strictly through Measure E funds?

It is the belief of the District that it will be able to do so. Several of our bond projects have run over cost significantly. We have little room left for error at this point.


6. It seemed that most of the concerns about approving this agenda item centered around costs to improve facilities at Altimira Middle School. What work needs to be done at Altimira?

Seven Altimira buildings were constructed via "tilt-up," and they constitute the bulk of the Altimira campus. Tilt-Up construction features series of concrete panels tilted up into place to form a building's exterior wall. These panels are created at the work site using wood forms, rebar and concrete. The forms are shaped and rebar cut to match the final designs. Next, concrete is poured into the forms and finished. 

While the technique was popular in the middle of the 20th century due to the perceived lower cost associated with the method, in the longer term the price associated with maintaining adherence with seismic safety standards ultimately makes it no less, and perhaps more expensive that competing methods of construction. During the preparation of the facilities master plan by Perkins Eastman, the consultants brought to light the SB 300 status of Altimira’s buildings. These buildings do not meet current seismic safety standards and SVUSD will be required to conduct a retrofit (at best) and perhaps will have to demolish and reconstruct these buildings in the near future, as the structures simply do not meet contemporary seismic safety standards -- a fact only brought to light in January of 2023. 


7. Why wasn’t the work at Altimira included in the list of bond projects?

The process of choosing projects on which to expend bond dollars was supposed to be guided by the principle of "safe, warm and dry." Safety was, at all times, intended to be the guiding principle in project prioritization. I have had disappointment over and over again at how the politicization of construction in the District has led to very different priorities being advanced. Ultimately, the bond expenditure program ended up being a series of compromises between competing groups all with legitimate claims to the expenditure of resources. My belief is that we as a District cannot allow that to occur again, and we must make sure to constrain, in the drafting of the bond measure language, the projects the trustees are allowed to expend funds regarding. 


8. How much do you expect the work at Altimira will cost?

I don't know. I have asked repeatedly for an estimate. Perkins Eastman represented to me they would have an estimate several times, including at our March and April meetings, but no information has been forthcoming. 

My expectation, at this point, is that the buildings will all need to be demolished and reconstructed, and I expect each will cost in the range of $10-$15 million. In aggregate, I would not be surprised if the total figure is between $70-$100 million as a consequence. 
While our business officials have expressed hope that remediation may be an order of magnitude less than this, more in the range of $5-$7 million, their reticence in committing to that figure is the "tell," so to speak, regarding the confidence anyone can have in that back-of-the-envelope calculation. 


9. Do you anticipate that another bond measure will need to be passed to do the work at Altimira, or can it be paid for in another way?

There was a lot of general language shared in the meeting regarding alternative funding mechanisms. Among the suggestions was the sale of District property, a complete nonstarter as far as I am concerned. CDOs, or collateralized debt obligations, are of course available, but because those are backstopped by the District's general fund, they should not be used in my opinion unless the project to which they are dedicated is revenue-generating. While there is some state money, and redevelopment agency funds anticipated to be received in future years that could potentially be securitized, none of these are appropriate for the construction of ordinary school facilities that were and are the top-line priority for past and future bond campaigns. Simply put, if we're not using bond monies for seismic safety, what are we using them for in the first place? Is there any higher priority than student safety in an earthquake, particularly for a school that serves our most disadvantaged student population? 


10. Do you think that it is likely that a bond measure could pass, and would other district needs be included in it?

This is too contingent of a question to answer at this time. SVUSD's record of bond expenditures makes clear that any language in a future bond will have to be carefully scrutinized before it is allowed to go to the voters. Having witnessed the gap between the reality of how bond funds have been spent, and how they were represented to the public in the first place, I would be very uncomfortable ever bringing such general language to the voters again. The legitimacy and accuracy of the bond offering is critical to ensuring that the funds are expended as the voters intended, and that just didn't happen in the past. 


11. You indicated that you felt there were strong arguments both for and against moving ahead with building the science wing. Please summarize your thoughts. 

Only the most trivial of arguments are easily disproved, and as trustees we know we are grappling with our essential duties when strong arguments can be deployed both pro and con. Here, support for science education is amongst the top priorities of our trustees. Remodeling our buildings that serve that important program will help equip our students for success in a future yet to be imagined, let alone fully described. I can understand the inclinations of my fellow trustees to proceed with the project given that important priority. Further, the fact that it has taken this long to reach this important project is again a further testament to how other projects, of less import to our constituents, were nonetheless advanced on the District's construction calendar. 

Change is difficult. It is scary to confront the costs that we may be facing at Altimira. As our business officials noted, the costs at Altimira may be so high that the remaining bond funds would be inadequate to address the issue, and the science building project is ready to commence. However, our voters expect us to prioritize given the facts that this board confronts, not the ones faced by another board in another time. The clear problems at Altimira, and the lack of any guidance given to the trustees on those costs, while the trustees were urged to approve this science building project that is now nearly double its initial estimates, justified caution in proceeding and the trustees should have obtained more information before approving the science building. Thus, the source of disagreement I think did not turn on the merits of the science building itself, but whether the appropriate amount of information had been provided to the trustees to weigh the competing interests. A special meeting could have been scheduled in a week or ten days to review estimates of Altimira and make a fully informed decision; the fact that the trustees did not wait to obtain that before proceeding was thus the ultimate source of disagreement at the meeting last night. 


12. How will building a new science wing enhance education for Sonoma Valley High School students?

New facilities are amongst the clearest ways we, as a District, can show our commitment to a particular program, and science education lies at the core of our current understanding of how to prepare our graduates for college and career. Existing facilities do not meet the needs of our program, as articulated by our educators. I trust their evaluation of this, and the science building is indeed a priority. 
There are alternatives to new construction, including the fact that as our enrollment and attendance decline, we have a surfeit of classrooms and structures available for repurposing. There was not a detailed discussion of those alternatives, and I would have liked to have seen if there were other options before proceeding. There were discussions about whether that information could be provided quickly, and I think it would have been appropriate for the trustees to consider this before proceeding.

13. Would you like to say anything else?

I believe that my fellow trustees are acting to resolve competing claims to resources, which is a classic function of a school board. It is right and proper that they should do this. However, I believe prudence here would have guided us to conserve bond funds, in an effort to demonstrate this board is aware of the issues with prior bond expenditures and knows the public is observing how well our governance team matches professed values with those practiced and applied over time. We as a District should be doing all we can to conserve resources to address those most critical of issues, and it is hard to find any more important in the context of facilities than seismic safety. While I realize those who serve as trustees with me now were not those who made earlier decisions regarding the expenditure of bond funds, we have collective responsibility for the operations of the District and we must recognize that the public will not distinguish us from one another when evaluating whether to support future bond expenditures, which will inevitably be necessary to maintain the quality of instruction our community wants and deserves. I remain committed to working with my fellow trustees to navigate these difficult questions in the future, despite our disagreement at times over priorities, such as we had last night over this construction decision.

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Boxed Wines: When It's Hip to Be Square.

"Coravin Model Two Wine Preservation Opener."
© 2017 JGuzman.

In a recent article published by The New York Times, Eric Asimov discusses the growing popularity and quality of boxed wines, primarily driven by environmental concerns. While boxed wines have faced resistance in the past due to perceptions of lower quality, this is changing as more producers and merchants choose bag-in-box packaging for wines not intended for cellaring. This shift is driven by the fact that wine bottles are a significant environmental problem, contributing to the wine industry's carbon footprint, and a low percentage of glass is recycled in the United States. Bag-in-box packaging offers several advantages, including preserving the wine's freshness for longer periods and reducing waste, making it a suitable option for wines not meant for aging.

Asimov, however, briefly mentions an important factor that contributes to the stigma around boxed wine: its unsuitability for wines intended to age more than a year. More expensive wines often require cellaring to reach their full potential, which necessitates the use of glass bottles -- meaning the highest quality wines will be linked with glass. This is a significant obstacle to boxed wine's acceptance, even if a marketing team on par with Apple were to make the "unboxing" experience more attractive. The perception (and indeed fact) of wine in a glass bottle as a higher-end product may thus hinder the progress of environmentally friendly alternatives.

Moreover, it's important to recognize two separate innovations in this space: the use of cardboard as a container and the vacuum-sealed bag that extends the wine's shelf life after opening. The latter, in the context of higher-end wines, is typically where Coravin technology is utilized. A vacuum-sealed bag is a far better solution than needles through corks and argon containers. A system that could combine the best of the two, allowing decanting into a vacuum-sealed enclosure that provides some of the time extension advantages, would avoid the unwieldy elements of Coravin. A competitor that streamlines the process while maintaining a high-quality image may be better poised to meet the needs of consumers, if not specifically addressing the carbon footprint and environmental impact of the industry.