Attendance, Housing, and Basic Aid.

 Sonoma County's 40 public school districts continue to see attendance declines. The lack of housing and a steadily declining birth rate are among the factors contributing to the decline. Sonoma County is predicted to experience a 16.9% enrollment drop by 2031, the fourth worst in California, as reported by the Press Democrat. In the past five years, Sonoma Valley has already experienced an 18.9% decrease in attendance, and as a trustee, I am familiar with the very profound changes that can cause. 

The article elides past some distinctions that are worth noting. First, school funding in California is based on attendance (the so-called "ADA," or average daily attendance), not enrollment (ADA is usually about 90% of enrollment, although there is a lot of variation).  Paying attention to the attendance figure will be the more reliable indicator of the state of school finance going forward in Sonoma County. 

Second, and related to the first point, is that as of November 2022, 16 of the 40 school districts in Sonoma County were "basic aid" districts, whose revenues do not change with either attendance or enrollment. In 2021‑22, the state had 118 basic aid school districts (about 13 percent of all districts).  As attendance continues to drop, more and more Sonoma County districts will become basic aid. Basic aid will increasingly be the default rule in Sonoma County. These districts (like Sonoma Valley) will ironically end up with more money per student given declining attendance, which is why many of these districts may very well not be interested in district consolidation intended to cut costs, as such consolidation would in fact reduce per-student funding.  There are a number of these districts in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Marin counties, those counties having had many of the same housing issues as Sonoma County for a longer period of time, and the trend in those counties has generally been against consolidation of districts.   

A final point, which comes up here from time to time. "Affordable Housing" is a term of art in many respects, and while there is a shortage of housing that can be afforded in Sonoma County by most people, that is different from "Affordable Housing." Sonoma County just lacks housing, period. Narrowing the issue using the term of art is probably not the most helpful, because it obscures the fact that the response to the crisis needs to be comprehensive.

Green Checkmate.

Today Fred Allebach, a member of the Sonoma Valley Collaborative and a friend, shared his thoughts on affordable housing and the challenges faced in Sonoma Valley and beyond with me via email. He provides a historical context of the 2020 Sonoma Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) issue, and how it continues to impact affordable housing projects. Allebach identifies the "Green Checkmate," a dynamic that hinders progress in the development of affordable housing by preserving low-density zoning and maintaining property value advantages for existing homeowners.

Fred also discusses the tension between environmental justice and social justice, pointing out that environmentalists (and those aligned with) tend to use green arguments to justify preserving a low-density, high-property-value status quo. He explains how affordable housing development is caught in a series of impossible arguments, resulting in the de facto segregated status quo.

Allebach advocates for a more inclusive approach to housing development that balances sustainability and social equity. He suggests supporting lower-income housing projects in unincorporated urban service areas and strategic affordable housing projects in non-urban service areas, especially where there are substantial job opportunities nearby. He also recommends considering the establishment of a City of Sonoma Valley to better address the collective housing needs of the region's population.

I have long appreciated Fred's work and his keen attention to and expertise regarding housing. Over time, Fred, and a group of like-minded, pragmatic reformers, with their continued focus on this difficult problem, are building the necessary muscles in the community to allow change to occur in the face of what can only be described as obstructive hostility. Fred's work shows how, rather than inspiration or enlightenment, it is grit that is the essential element in pursuit of justice.