Thursday, November 29, 2012

Conversations with History: Elizabeth Warren.

For anyone interested in what happens next in American politics, watching this video makes an awful lot of sense. Elizabeth Warren's path through life has been anything but conventional, and was pretty much the last thing I'd ever expect for a law professor from Harvard. The interview is long (an hour) but the first ten minutes are probably the most important.

Elizabeth Warren is already a prominent figure at this point in her career, but isn't as overtly political as she perhaps is today.  The talk is very candid, and she goes into her experiences growing up, her somewhat roundabout education, her early days as a solo law practitioner, and how she began her research into bankruptcy law. Perhaps the most amazing thing about this interview is that it was conducted before the start of the Lesser Depression, and how prescient her views are given what's taken place since.

Regarding the interviewer, the Institute for International Studies at Berkeley has been conducting this series for more than 25 years, and Harry Kreisler does a great job of moderating the interviews.  I've watched a set, and they're quite something.  All are available on YouTube, from Abdullahi Ahmed An-Na'im to Howard Zinn.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

iPhone backup, iCloud and local, at the same time.

Very handy tip from GigaOM.
available at http://tinyurl.com/cp3b2zm
If you're like me, backing up your iPhone is a big deal. I do it regularly, because I use "Missing Sync for iPhone" for its call log feature, which links up (after some scripting) very nicely with Timeslips (a common legal billing program), and which depends on a local backup to obtain the call data.

Since the advent of iCloud, I've started backing up using the service.  It's great -- I don't have to plug my phone in to my Mac to make sure I have daily backups.

However, I still need that local backup for call logs, and further, while iCloud is very useful for backups, restoring from it can be slow, and it only keeps one backup.  But using Time Machine on my Mac means that there are a lot of snapshots of the condition of my phone, which is good for rollbacks if necessary.

So, this advice today, on backing up to both iCloud and locally, is pretty useful.  Just right click on the iPhone icon in iTunes, and the option's right there. Nice! Thanks GigaOM!

Secession is a bad idea, full stop.

The Battle of Gettysburg, Pa. July 3d., 1863, by Currier and Ives.
The Economist talks about secession today.  This is not an issue that I think that anyone, let alone the President, should take seriously. However, if anyone thinks the case against secession need be made, I think a helpful place to start is the Wikipedia article about the Battle of Spotsylvania Courthouse, and in particular, what occurred at the Bloody Angle, which was probably the most fierce and horrible battle of the entire war.  I don't think anyone wants to unleash anything like this ever again:
"'The combat they had endured for almost 24 hours was characterized by an intensity of firepower never previously seen in Civil War battles, as the entire landscape was flattened, all the foliage destroyed. An example of this can be found in the Smithsonian Museum of American History: a 22-inch stump of an oak tree at the Bloody Angle that was completely severed by rifle fire. There was a frenzy to the carnage on both sides. Fighting back and forth over the same corpse-strewn trenches for hours on end, using single shot muskets, the contending troops were periodically reduced to hand-to-hand combat reminiscent of battles fought during ancient times. Surviving participants attempted to describe in letters, diaries, and memoirs the hellish intensity of that day, many noting that it was beyond words. Or, as one put it: 'Nothing can describe the confusion, the savage, blood-curdling yells, the murderous faces, the awful curses, and the grisly horror of the melee.'"


Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Prof. Shaun Martin & 5th St W.

Shaun Martin -- great job, good education, probably 
a nice family. At least he's balding.  
Shaun Martin's a nice guy. I don't know him personally, but I do have evidence to support that fact. Shaun teaches law at the University of San Diego, which should make anyone dislike him as a threshold matter due to pure jealousy.  However, Shaun drags himself nearly daily away from his splendidly magnificent career choice to maintain a blog where he reviews the latest (when I say latest, I mean "last few hours") decisions from the California Courts of Appeal, and the 9th Circuit.  He usually picks out one case, links to the opinion, and explains (very briefly) an interesting or useful point the case illustrates.  Sometimes it's a technical civil procedure point, sometimes it's a nuance of criminal law, and sometimes it's an example of lawyers behaving (very) badly.  It is consistently interesting and very useful as a legal research tool.

Back around Halloween, Shaun picked up on a case from the California Court of Appeal entitled Tuolomne Jobs & Small Business Alliance v. Superior Ct. (Cal. Ct. App. - Oct. 30, 2012). The case concerns projects that are approved by the voters in a voter-sponsored initiative, which are exempt from having to prepare an environmental impact report.  So far, so good.  As some California political types are doubtless aware, that procedure's been used by business (Wal-Mart is an example) to an increasing degree in California, where paid signature gatherers get fifteen percent of the voters sign a petition supporting their construction project.  City Councils, instead of putting the measure on the ballot, then adopt the initiative as a statute in lieu of an election.  Question -- do you still get out of the environmental impact report then? The Tuolomne Jobs court says "No."  Shaun thinks the California State Supreme Court will take this one up (and he's probably right, because this is a big deal), and will probably adopt the Tuolomne Jobs opinion, which will diminish (but I doubt stop) the business-oriented use of the local initiative process.

No appeal has yet been filed, but I suspect it will be coming in the next thirty days. Nice catch, Mr. Martin.

The availability of an initiative, from a Sonoma perspective, came to my mind because of what's taking place at 5th St W at Studley.  The Sonoma Index-Tribune did an outstanding writeup on the City Council's meeting, which included a statement from the (outgoing) Public Works director stating that the City of Sonoma "believes existing conditions are safe” and expressed the belief that no structural changes “can make them safer," but at the same time stating that there is reasonable cause to evaluate the intersection further through a new traffic study. The Council did not commission a new traffic study (yet) despite the statement from the Public Works Director that such a new study is reasonable. It may very well be that the City Council is waiting until its newly elected members are seated in December before tackling this issue -- but this is not something that should go very far beyond then, and it's nice to know that something like the initiative process is available in a worst-case scenario if the City persistently fails to act.

Friday, November 23, 2012

Sonoma County vs. Welwyn Garden City.

Levittown, Pennsylvania, 1959
available at http://tinyurl.com/cw3gs3
Sonoma County is relatively proud of its planning heritage; Rohnert Park, south of Santa Rosa, was founded at the same time as the Levittowns, and was marketed as a new middle-class city.  Occasionally, local cheerleaders will refer to it as the first planned city in the United States, which flies in the face of history but which locals generally regard as a mostly harmless bit of boosterism. I say "mostly harmless" because Sonoma County's self-imagined role as a trailblazer means it tends to miss the fact that its problems are predictable ones that have occurred elsewhere.   

For a time when I was in the 4th grade, I went to the Templewood School, in Welwyn Garden City, Hertfordshire, England. For someone from Sonoma County, California, this was an interesting experience, for a host of reasons. One reason, though, that I didn't realize until much later, is that Sonoma County's general plan (consciously or not) has been, is, and will be modeled on the garden city movement, and Welwyn Garden City is one of the movement's best examples.
"Do we all dream of life in a garden city?"
The Telegraph, November 22, 2012
available at http://tinyurl.com/adnyfcj

The Garden City movement was really inspired by a single novel -- Edward Bellamy's Looking Backward.  The details aren't germane to this post, but Looking Backward describes what today would be called a socialist utopia. Sir Ebenezer Howard took those ideas and ran with them, and decided that creating the world Edward Bellamy described meant that planned, self-contained communities, surrounded by greenbelts, should be created.  These cities would have approximately 30,000 residents, and would contain proportionate areas for residences, industry and agriculture. Howard envisaged a cluster of several garden cities as satellites of a central city of 50,000 people, linked by road and rail.

Garden City Diagram
As socialist utopias, the garden cities were something of a failure; property values tended to rise, and blue collar workers were forced out in favor of middle class families.  Industry and agriculture would thus suffer due to higher labor costs, and they moved out, too.  The garden city ended up becoming a garden suburb, built around transport (roads, and importantly railroads) that connected it to a nearby city where its residents work during the day -- which ultimately made the garden suburb economically dependent, undermining the whole point of the movement.

Sherradspark Wood
available at http://tinyurl.com/bbgul8s
Sir Howard's first such city, Letchworth Garden City, was thus a modest economic success, if not much of an immediate political one.  It was followed by Welwyn Garden City.  Howard's disciples sought to make Welwyn even more beautiful than Letchworth, and as a former resident, I can tell you, they succeeded to an amazing degree. As a fourth grader, I remember walking through small wooded areas, and then through winding, calm, pleasant neighborhoods on my way to Templewood. The school itself backs up on to Sherradspark Wood, which is something right out of the Lord of the Rings.  Those rare times I rode in a car, the enormous, green open spaces left an indelible memory -- I still remember the view along the city's Parkway, which I (much later) learned is considered one of the finest urban vistas in the world.

Parkway, looking south, Welwyn Garden City
 available at http://tinyurl.com/be9lty8
The unintentional economic success of the garden cities was not missed by the denizens of Whitehall.  In the aftermath of the Second World War, they embarked on a program of creating new towns, which, for an American audience, is something like the English version of Levittown.  Of course, Levittowns are not socialist utopias.  But the irony is that cities designed to be socialist utopias ended up being exactly what the U.K. middle class was looking for (Welywn Garden City itself was "back designated" as one of the new towns).  The garden cities' successors, whether new towns or Levittowns, reflect the same design aesthetic that made Letchworth Garden City and Welwyn Garden City popular -- which brings us back to places like Rohnert Park, California.

The basic problem of the garden city movement didn't go away just because American developers began using it.  American planned communities, due to their amenities, landscaping, and design proved very attractive to the middle class--the working class rarely even got a foothold.  Those new middle class residents commuted, and thus the planned community became ever more economically dependent on transport links. In Welwyn Garden City, this was no problem -- the city's rail station, on the East Coast Main Line connecting London to Edinburgh, heads straight into King's Cross (20 miles away), where it's (from a Sonoma County resident's perspective) easy to get anywhere in London in short order.

Sonoma County isn't on the U.S. equivalent of the East Coast Main Line.  It's on the Northwestern Pacific, which, by way of contrast, was shut down by the U.S. Federal Government in 1999.  Sonoma County has nothing like Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), which the eastern part of the San Francisco Bay Area uses to emulate the success of Welwyn Garden City's access to the East Coast Main Line. Sonoma County's main roadway, US-101, had, by the mid 1990's, become chronically jammed by traffic. Economically, the structural weakness this created was concealed (to a degree) by the consequences of rampant real estate speculation and asset price inflation.  When the housing market crashed, the economic prerequisite necessary for the success of a garden suburb, excellent transportation links, wasn't there, and Sonoma County's unemployment went from 2% to 11%.  Other parts of the Bay Area, with high quality transportation, weathered the storm better.

SMART Line under Construction
Press Democrat, August 30, 2012.
available at http://tinyurl.com/9wkfkaj
 Due to the lack of rail transport, Sonoma County has become nearly entirely dependent on roadways and cars. The roads are now in the worst condition of any in the San Francisco Bay Area, and inter-county travel by cars is one our most significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Sonoma County is backing into the railroad solution; it has begun construction on the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit (SMART) line. The surprise, perhaps, though, is that the solution is fifty years "after the fact," so to speak.

There are other interesting questions that spin off of the initial premise that Sir Howard had in founding Letchworth and Welwyn Garden Cities.  The unintended consequences of applying an urban design model built upon the premise of utopian socialism has broader effects than merely kicking Sonoma County in the teeth economically over the last ten years -- but those are other posts for other days.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Nate Silver on the House of Representatives ...

So, Nate Silver has picked up on the House of Representatives result, arguing the Democrats underperformed.

Democrats Unlikely to Regain House in 2014
"Nate Silver's Political Calculus," Nov. 16, 2012
available at http://tinyurl.com/cxx3gom
This contrasts with Paul Krugman's "The Democrats are the party of government" argument.  Nate Silver seems to catch on that, in an equally split vote, the Republicans will tend to control the House.  This seems to support the Republicans as the party of government, but that's really a minor argument compared to the bigger issue, which is the fact that it is unlikely the Democratic Party will recapture control of the House until 2022 at the earliest.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post continues to analyze the House of Representatives result (they are all over the issue, running their first article on Nov. 9), and their rough results indicate that the Democratic vote for House Members will exceed the Republicans, despite the Republicans maintaining control.

Aaron Blake, "The Fix"
Washington Post, November 9, 2012
available at http://tinyurl.com/b5js6x8
There are some oddities that are affecting the final result.  For instance, in a number of House districts in California the election was between members of the same party (six D v. D, two R v. R), and thus all votes cast in those races were either for the Democrats or Republicans.  When adjusting for those anomalies, it appears the Democrats will still maintain their overall popular vote majority in House elections.

The question I have is, what would the likely national popular vote have to be for the Democrats to emerge with a similar majority to what the Republicans now enjoy?  This is hardly scientific, but in 2006, they did have a similar majority in the House, but the popular vote for House was 42,082,311-35,674,808. Just doing an extrapolation from those results indicates that the Republicans can expect to get substantial majorities by merely battling to a draw, while the Democrats need to outpoll the Republicans by 8% to get a similar majority in the House.

Friday, November 16, 2012

25,982 Reasons Why Pedestrian Deaths On 5th St W Are "Statistically Significant."

"Searching for Answers on Fifth Street," Sonoma Index-Tribune
November 16, 2012
available at http://tinyurl.com/clu7jc8
Two people have been killed at the same intersection near my home in the last seven years. My city government believes that two deaths in that time period at the same intersection are not statistically significant.  My local paper instinctively senses they're something amiss despite the city's assertion. Guess what, Sonoma Index-Tribune? I think you're right, and pro bono publico, here's what I think the problem is with the city's argument.
"Busy" Intersections in Sonoma.

To set the scene for non-local readers, I live in a relatively small town, Sonoma, California, with about 10,000 people (10,741, according to Google). Per the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, there are approximately 1.73 pedestrian deaths per 100,000 population in the United States per year.  21.2% of these deaths happen at intersections.  I've looked over a map of Sonoma, and there are a lot of intersections; but I've tried to count only the substantial ones -- I think there are 29 (the list is on the right).  Please note that if I were more conservative, and counted each intersection, it would only make the chances of a second fatality at the same intersection less likely.

Thus, I think the chance of a pedestrian fatality at any given intersection, if the intersections are roughly equally dangerous, in any given year, to be a relatively straightforward application of the multiplication rule -- it's (1.73/100000) * 10,741 * 212/1000 * 1/29, or 1 in 736.  Long odds - you'd have a better chance of drawing a full house in a single draw of the cards at poker.

OK, but what are the chances of getting another pedestrian fatality at the same intersection within seven years? My old statistics book from Berkeley came in handy here -- it's an application of the binomial formula.  The formula is on the right; the binomial function from Excel made calculation pretty straightforward.  The chances of another pedestrian accident happening at the same intersection, if the intersections are equally dangerouswithin seven years, is 1 in 18,518 25,982.  It's not quite as hard as drawing a straight flush, but it's pretty close.
Freedman, Pisani, Purves & Adhikari
"Statistics, Second Edition," p.241.

It's unlikely that Sonoma was so unlucky. Instead, it's more probable that the intersection in question is vastly more dangerous than normal. Indeed, 1 in 25,982 is somewhere between a 4σ and 5σ event; mere "statistical significance" usually requires only 2σ (95%), and anything beyond 3σ is typically "highly significant."

But of course, I am no statistician, and this is all the work of an amateur. The problem is that the City staff aren't either, and I suspect they're even worse at it than me. The City shouldn't be saying something is statistically insignificant without talking to someone who has the education and experience necessary to determine that fact. This isn't a $30,000 study, it's something a grad student from UCB can handle in an afternoon. The City needs to do the work to prove this is merely bad luck, and judging by the staff report, they simply haven't.

Spreadsheet with formulas.
The I-T knows there's an issue here--for instance, they have been raising hue and cry about installing sidewalks in the Boyes Hot Springs area, based on the argument that pedestrians aren't safe (and they're right).  The hard question, though, is whether the I-T, given the economic vise the newspaper industry has been placed in, still has the resources to challenge arguments like those advanced by the City, that in incidents of these types that "the pedestrian or bicyclist was the party most at fault."  Personally, I think the I-T is on the right track, and I say, please keep pushing, because the voters are depending on you to do so, to keep us informed.  And public safety depends upon you making sure our government isn't just hand-waving in response to citizen concerns -- our officials need to do the math to prove their points, and need to show us the results.

Updated 4:55 PM Saturday, November 17:  The odds of two deaths in the same intersection in 7 years were updated to reflect the 21.2% NHTSA figure, rather than 25%.  Further, John Capone, the writer for the Index-Tribune, pointed out in his article that Beatriz Villanueva was killed in the same intersection in 1996.  The chances of three pedestrian fatalities in 17 years occurring at random at the same intersection under the assumptions detailed above is 1 in 597,956. By way of comparison, the chance of drawing a royal flush in a single hand of poker is 1 in 649,739.